Odds of 101 on the wrong team.

A Malaysian women's basketball cup, two teams that swapped names, and a 10/10 stake.

Jimin Jibao in the LED mask. The video for this page is coming.

In August 2019 I put a maximum 10/10 stake on a game in Malaysia's women's basketball cup (MABA): Negeri Sembilan Women vs NS Matrix Women. The odds were around 100.

That's not a typo, and it wasn't a long shot.

What happened

Before the season, the club's first team and reserve team swapped names, and the new names look nothing alike. bet365 priced the game as if nothing had changed. The strong team was priced as a huge underdog, and the weak team as the favourite.

The opening handicap was more than +40 on the team that was actually far better.

I had seen this exact mistake a couple of days earlier, in another game in the same competition. Nobody else noticed it then either, and I got paid.

The pick

I posted the pick on Blogabet as hidden. Back then that was free on Blogabet; now private picks are a paid option, and I pay for it. Nobody could see it until I settled it, so nobody could move the line or alert the traders.

Blogabet pick posted 24 August 2019: Negeri Sembilan Women, double result, odds 101, 10/10 stake, bet365, won +1,000 — Pick 1 on Blogabet, still graded at 101. The picks: pick 1 ↗ and pick 2 ↗.

Negeri Sembilan won 83–22. It was 32–10 at half-time, and they won every quarter. The team bet365 priced as a huge underdog won by 61 points. bet365 paid every ticket.

Official MABA scoreboard: Negeri Sembilan 83, NS Matrix 22, 61st MABA/MATRIX National Basketball Championship for Women, 25 August 2019 — The official result: 83–22. Quarters 17–6, 15–4, 22–10, 29–2.

"There is no such thing"

When the pick became visible, someone reported it:

"10/10 with odds 101 at malaysian women basketball ?? There is no such thing. Unfair for other tipsters."

Two Blogabet report emails from 24 August 2019 about the 101 odds pick: one says there is no such thing, the other asks in Spanish whether the 101 odds were verified — Both picks were reported within minutes of becoming visible. The second report, in Spanish: "Is this 101 price verified? I can't find it anywhere."

I sent the admins the facts. The handicap opened above +40. Even after it dropped to +16, the half-time/full-time price on Negeri was still 51.00, so at +40 it was well over 100. And I had the settled tickets:

Bet	Stake	Odds	Return
HT/FT: Negeri Sembilan / Negeri Sembilan	€5.00	51.00	€255.00
Moneyline: Negeri Sembilan	€38.46	7.50	€288.45
Handicap: Negeri Sembilan +16.0	€300.00	1.83	€550.00

Placed on 24 August 2019, settled by bet365 after the game on 25 August.

Settled bet365 bets placed on 24 August 2019: HT/FT Negeri Sembilan at 51.00, moneyline at 7.50, handicap +16.0 at 1.83 — The settled bet365 tickets I sent to Blogabet, placed later than the picks, when the handicap had already dropped to +16.

Blogabet's editor wrote back that it was "very erroneous odds" and that using such odds "is against the rules". I answered that it was erroneous only in one sense: it didn't match the real strength of the teams. And bet365 paid in full.

In the end they met me halfway. Pick 2 was regraded as a win at 51.00, "the highest odds we got evidence for". I only had tickets to show at 51. Pick 1 is still graded at 101.

Blogabet pick 2 regraded to 51 with the comment thread: the editor calls the odds very erroneous, Jimin explains bet365 paid in full, the editor regrades the pick to 51 — Pick 2 and the whole conversation with Blogabet's editor. Another user's name blurred.

The lesson

Bookmakers make mistakes. This one paid because I kept quiet. If I had posted it in public before the game, ten people would have hit the line in ten minutes, the price would have been fixed, and the bets would probably have been voided.

Seven years earlier, at the same bookmaker, a close friend found a different kind of mistake. During a live game, bet365's prices had the two teams the wrong way round: a mechanical error, even clearer than mine. Mine was bet365's own judgement before the game, on team names it had listed itself. My friend bet into it 161 times in one night. bet365 noticed, and took back every price. 161 bets. One game. Every price taken back →

Same bookmaker, two mistakes, opposite endings. A few quiet bets got paid. A flood got cut. Real edges need silence. Mistakes like this are extremely rare today, and ordinary bettors almost never get to one in time. And for every mistake like this there are thousands of normal games where the bookmaker is right and you are not.

Don't even start.